El método del factor de Bayes en el análisis de la energía mecánica en pacientes con insuficiencia respiratoria grave por SARS-CoV-2 / The Bayes factor in the analysis of mechanical power in patients with severe respiratory failure due to SARS-CoV-2

Objetivo: Precisar el grado de fuerza probatoria de las hipótesis estadísticas con relación a la mortalidad a 28 días y el valor umbral de 17J/min de potencia mecánica (PM) en pacientes con insuficiencia respiratoria secundaria a SARS-CoV-2. Diseño: Estudio de cohortes, longitudinal y analítico. Ámbito: Unidad de cuidados intensivos de un hospital de tercer nivel en España. Pacientes: Enfermos ingresados por infección por SARS-CoV-2 con ingreso en la UCI entre marzo de 2020 y marzo de 2022. Intervenciones: Análisis bayesiano con el modelo binomial beta. Variables de interés principales: Factor de Bayes, mechanical power. Resultados: Fueron analizados 253 pacientes. La frecuencia respiratoria inicial (BF10: 3,83×106), el valor de la presión pico (BF10: 3,72×1013) y el desarrollo de neumotórax (BF10: 17.663) fueron los valores con más probabilidad de ser diferentes entre los 2 grupos de pacientes comparados. En el grupo de pacientes con PM<17J/min se estableció un BF10 de 12,71 y un BF01 de 0,07 con un IdC95% de 0,27-0,58; Para el grupo de pacientes con PM≥17J/min el BF10 fue de 36.100 y el BF01 de 2,77e-05 con un IdC95% de 0,42-0,72. Conclusiones: Un valor de PM≥17J/min se asocia con una evidencia extrema con la mortalidad a 28 días en pacientes que necesitaron ventilación mecánica por insuficiencia respiratoria secundaria a enfermedad por SARS-CoV-2. (AU)

Objective: To specify the degree of probative force of the statistical hypotheses in relation to mortality at 28 days and the threshold value of 17J/min mechanical power (MP) in patients with respiratory failure secondary to SARS-CoV-2. Design: Cohort study, longitudinal, analytical. Setting: Intensive care unit of a third level hospital in Spain. Patients: Patients admitted for SARS-CoV-2 infection with admission to the ICU between March 2020 and March 2022. Interventions: Bayesian analysis with the beta binomial model. Main variables of interest: Bayes factor, mechanical power. Results: A total of 253 patients were analyzed. Baseline respiratory rate (BF10: 3.83×106), peak pressure value (BF10: 3.72×1013) and neumothorax (BF10: 17,663) were the values most likely to be different between the two groups of patients compared. In the group of patients with MP<17J/min, a BF10 of 12.71 and a BF01 of 0.07 were established with an 95%CI of 0.27-0.58. For the group of patients with MP≥17J/min the BF10 was 36,100 and the BF01 of 2.77e-05 with an 95%CI of 0.42-0.72. Conclusions: A MP≥17J/min value is associated with extreme evidence with 28-day mortality in patients requiring MV due to respiratory failure secondary to SARS-CoV-2 disease. (AU)

[The Bayes factor in the analysis of mechanical power in patients with severe respiratory failure due to SARS-CoV-2]. / El método del factor de Bayes en el análisis de la energía mecánica en pacientes con insuficiencia respiratoria grave por SARS-CoV-2.

Objective: To specify the degree of probative force of the statistical hypotheses in relation to mortality at 28 days and the threshold value of 17 J/min mechanical power (MP) in patients with respiratory failure secondary to SARS-CoV-2. Design: Cohort study, longitudinal, analytical. Setting: Intensive care unit of a third level hospital in Spain. Patients: Patients admitted for SARS-CoV-2 infection with admission to the ICU between March 2020 and March 2022. Interventions: Bayesian analysis with the beta binomial model. Main variables of interest: Bayes factor, mechanical power. Results: A total of 253 patients were analyzed. Baseline respiratory rate (BF10: 3.83 × 106), peak pressure value (BF10: 3.72 × 1013) and neumothorax (BF10: 17,663) were the values most likely to be different between the two groups of patients compared. In the group of patients with MP < 17 J/min, a BF10 of 12.71 and a BF01 of 0.07 were established with an 95%CI of 0.27-0.58. For the group of patients with MP ≥ 17 J/min the BF10 was 36,100 and the BF01 of 2.77e-05 with an 95%CI of 0.42-0.72. Conclusions: A MP ≥ 17 J/min value is associated with extreme evidence with 28-day mortality in patients requiring MV due to respiratory failure secondary to SARS-CoV-2 disease.

The Bayes factor in the analysis of mechanical power in patients with severe respiratory failure due to SARS-CoV-2.

OBJECTIVE: To specify the degree of probative force of the statistical hypotheses in relation to mortality at 28 days and the threshold value of 17 J/min mechanical power (MP) in patients with respiratory failure secondary to SARS-CoV-2. DESIGN: Cohort study, longitudinal, analytical. SETTING: Intensive care unit of a third level hospital in Spain. PATIENTS: Patients admitted for SARS-CoV-2 infection with admission to the ICU between March 2020 and March 2022. INTERVENTIONS: Bayesian analysis with the beta binomial model. MAIN VARIABLES OF INTEREST: Bayes factor, mechanical power. RESULTS: A total of 253 patients were analyzed. Baseline respiratory rate (BF10: 3.83 × 106), peak pressure value (BF10: 3.72 × 1013) and neumothorax (BF10: 17,663) were the values most likely to be different between the two groups of patients compared. In the group of patients with MP < 17 J/min, a BF10 of 12.71 and a BF01 of 0.07 were established with an 95%CI of 0.27-0.58. For the group of patients with MP ≥ 17 J/min the BF10 was 36,100 and the BF01 of 2.77e-05 with an 95%CI of 0.42-0.72. CONCLUSIONS: A MP ≥ 17 J/min value is associated with extreme evidence with 28-day mortality in patients requiring MV due to respiratory failure secondary to SARS-CoV-2 disease.